The countries of Central Asia have made notable progress to deepen their integration, build their economies and ensure the wellbeing and prosperity of their citizens. But the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and a consequent rise in extremist and terrorist groups along its border presents Central Asian countries with difficult challenges.
Tajikistan is playing a major role in addressing those challenges, writes Usmonzoda Kh.
CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES have been able to manage an evergrowing number of chal- lenges and threats, and still ensure the stability of their societies through efforts to preserve and expand the space for the protection of their interests. this includes the domains of international, regional and domestic politics. such a strategy is particularly relevant today, when cooperation between states is often used to dem- onstrate force to protect national interests. this can involve verbal rhetoric, real military confrontations, sanctions, violations of people’s rights an dfreedoms and other forms of action. the aggregate of such growing challenges and threats following russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created the basis for the emergence of divid- ing lines between countries, and international and regional structures, depending on their rela- tion to these developments.
Given these circumstances it is necessary to be clearly aware of these challenges and be able to respond to them rationally, without falling into
panic and confusion. to take steps to overcome these challenges is, in turn, a move toward a systematic and permanent search for a solution without putting them off as problems for future generations. this approach will make it possible not to fall into the abyss of unresolved problems that contribute to instability in society. today, the republic of tajikistan is taking seriously the growing threats and challenges looming over the world due to the polarity of the current world order. this is understandable, because the effect of political and economic confrontation between the major powers is felt most noticeably and pain-fully among developing countries, whose room for maneuver is significantly narrowed not only in the political arena, but also in the economic and social sphere. the predicament also reduces the opportunities for their development part- ners to support financially and technically their efforts to improve the lives of their citizens.
BETTER COMMUNICATIONS
Each wave of challenges opens the way to whole layers of meanings that emerge out of the accumulated experiences of development in a society. For example, in light of the search for a framework to overcome sharp challenges and threats, which is of particular importance to the strategic objectives of tajikistan, the importance of the public benefits that flow from economic activity is critical for strengthening the foundations of stability. since 2000, tajikistan has sought to implement four strategic tasks: providing food security, the achievement of energy independence, the enhancement of communications net- works and accelerated industrialization of the country.
Without the timely adoption and imple- mentation of these strategies, we would be faced with even more difficult challenges today. there- fore, it is the results of these efforts that now allow our country to focus on solutions to new problems and to take steps to overcome modern challenges and
threats.
The strategy of overcoming communications and transport deadlocks allowed the population of tajikistan to establish and strengthen ties of
friendship and unity among themselves, both spiritually and by intensifying trade and economic relations. this increased communication has had a softening effect on the way in which regional representatives perceive each other, on their values and on their relations. the involve- ment of the elite in this process of managing the flow of ideas and people from one region or district to another has helped remove mistrust and expand social interaction. this has mitigated the existing dichotomy of developed and undeveloped regions within the country.
RETURN OF THE TALIBAN
Through this process, people naturally move away from the stereotypes through which they once looked at various social groups. Of course, all these elements of stability cannot fully strengthen public confidence, given the unsta- ble reality in which tajiks and other peoples live today. the reasons for the increasing number of disturbing events for tajikistan are largely a consequence of the intensive involvement of the country in global and regional political and economic developments. these have both positive and negative effects on socio-economic development and therefore require constant moni- toring and reflection in order to minimize negative impacts and ensure stable development. One central phenomenon among these external events is the tension on the border with afghanistan, the constant hybrid skirmishes on the bor- der between terrorist groups and their attempts to transfer drugs to the territory of tajikistan with the support of transnational groups. these terror- ist groups keep the tajik public in a state of alarm, and this requires an urgent understanding of the causes and solutions to these problems. an adequate understanding will lead to an awareness of the need to develop an appropriate response that is commensurate with our capabilities.
Afghanistan is one of our closest southern neighbors, so our country cannot be indifferent to events there. at the same time, ethnic tajiks make up a majority of the population of afghani- stan, which makes our solidarity with the country even more significant. it is worth noting that after more than a year and half of taliban rule in afghanistan, the situation has become more complicated because of the activation of terror- ist groups, increase in poverty and growing economic crisis in the country. the closing of the doors of educational institutions for girls and the increasingly difficult social conditions add to the burden. in the current international environment, due to the events in Ukraine, the assessment of the internal situation in afghanistan has become less important to international organizations. at the same time, the emergence of an increasing number of insecurities has diminished the hopes of the international community that the current government will change its political image and rule as a healthy force under international law.
In other words, more than a year and a half has passed since the taliban came to power and the situation in afghanistan continues to develop
negatively as threats to security and stability are constantly making themselves felt. as a result of this continuing political instability and insecurity, terrorist groups such as isis-Khorasan, al- Qaida, Hizb-ut-tahrir, ansarullah and the like have reappeared on the scene and started to fight against the taliban. as a result, the taliban, which in the past was loosely associated with these groups and fought against the then-central government, are now under threat from these very same forces. this situation does not allow the taliban to sustain their political activities and stabilize their government.
OFFERING SUPPORT
Tajikistan has always been in favor of peace and political stability in our neighboring country, and we are able to live with them in an atmosphere of good neighborliness and constructive co-operation. Given that afghanistan is facing a deep humanitarian crisis, tajikistan, in co-ordination with its international partners, has offered all its logistical possibilities to provide humanitarian aid to the suffering people of afghanistan. also, in an address, tajik leader Emomali Rakhmon ordered the government to take measures to provide humanitarian aid to afghanistan within the framework of the available opportunities. The circulation of goods and services has been estab- lished to some extent, but it is not suitable for the capacities and requirements of both sides. the main obstacle in this direction is the presence of threats to security.
Naturally, against the background of events in recent months in afghanistan, two break- throughs involving the borders with tajikistan through the checkpoints at Badakhshan, have led to security concerns in tajikistan and height- ened the danger of afghanistan turning into a haven for terrorist groups. this put the region at risk.1 Despite the declaration of readiness to prevent the use of afghanistan as a base for threats to the countries of Central asia, the taliban can- not fully confront terrorist groups due to their historical co-operation with them. tajikistan, in view of its historical experience, does not intend to engage with the ideology of islamic radicalism, which uses violent methods of political struggle, because it is a threat to all secular regimes in Central asia. to rely on the fact that a group adher- ing to this ideology will eventually change and enter the world of civilized relations and become a partner for dialogue is, in my view,
premature. the non-recognition of the taliban-formed gov- ernment so far — officially by no country in the world — is a consequence of the realization that the taliban, with its harsh ideology, cannot over- night fundamentally renounce that ideology now that they have once again come to power.
In addition, due to the exacerbation of internal conflicts and the creation of insecurity on the borders with neighboring countries, events in Afghanistan can have negative consequences for the countries of Central asia. the current global situation has further exacerbated exist-
One of the important proposals of Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon is to create a security belt around the joint regional border with Afghanistan, because Afghanistan’s instability threatens all countries in the region and beyond.
Afghanistan can be saved from state collapse and widespread hunger only if there is such a security belt around it.
ing internal conflicts, and with the interference of external parties there is the possibility of dis- integration of the country between military and political factions. therefore, tajikistan, realizing its responsibility to ensure regional security in Central asia, has taken control of the situation, and one of the important proposals of President rakhmon is to create a security belt
around the joint regional border with afghanistan, because afghanistan’s instability threatens all countries in the region and beyond.
TIGHTEN THE SECURITY BELT
Another issue that could affect the political and military development in afghanistan today is the whirlwind of major geopolitical tests related to tensions in south asia. this increases the incentive to maintain an unstable situation in Afghanistan for as long as possible in order to create bar- riers to the security and development of regional rivals for the superpowers. in short, afghanistan is considered a suitable place for growing and exporting agents of regional insecurity.
The idea of creating a security belt around afghanistan is not aimed at isolating the coun- try; on the contrary, it implies:
•Minimizing of the threat of penetration and creation of extremist cells in the border states and countries of Central asia under the guise of refugees;
•Operational exchange of information between border states and Central asian countries on the situation with drug trafficking and attempts to export drugs;
•Elaboration of effective mechanisms for ensur- ing reliable protection of the borders of Central asian countries.
Afghanistan can be saved from state collapse and widespread hunger only if there is such a security belt around it. the implementation of these measures would create and maintain the security of the region’s economic corridor with afghanistan, and attract investment in the infra- structure and
initiatives of developed states in the region. On this basis, it would be possible to connect afghanistan as a promising economic partner for other countries. this could give impetus to attempts to move the interactions of Cen- tral asian countries with afghanistan in a peaceful direction, to prevent the use of the country as a base for the regrouping of extremist and terrorist groups and to reduce tensions in the region as a whole. in this way, the countries of the region can help rebuild afghanistan’s economy, reduce the threat of its collapse and prevent a humani- tarian catastrophe there.
the degree to which Central asian countries can focus their efforts on the pressing socio-eco- nomic challenges and control the state of security on their common borders in the direction of afghanistan depends on the successful resolution of the problems i have mentioned. as for the security concerns for tajikistan, they stem from very complex circumstances. it is clear that today there is a completely new reality in afghanistan, and
there are, of course, different approaches on the part of the countries in our region. With the return to power of the taliban, which does not fully embody the new reality in afghanistan, but is part of it, some individuals and political actors are stirring up tensions, creating panic and in some places emphasizing the threat of confron- tation. therefore, tajikistan’s stance toward the taliban regime is of a more pragmatic nature, based on the idea that security goals should be more important than some economic benefits. this means that some economic costs can be accepted for a certain period of time, which may increase as political tensions worsen.
The situation in afghanistan is still unstable, and it is constantly changing. the existing authorities are not yet ready to take more effective action to fulfill their commitments to form a coalition government, to open access for women to education, and to take into account the rights and freedoms of all ethnic groups. therefore, the position of tajikistan on the afghan issue has always been consistent, more constructive and less detrimental to reducing the persist- ing tensions on the common border with Cen- tral asia. As
afghanistan responds effectively to the fundamental security concerns of neigh- boring countries in the future, the attitude of tajikistan, as well as all Central asian countries, will also change. But today, it seems to us that the afghan authorities have chosen a different strategy at a time when their position is becom- ing increasingly precarious due to a declining economy and deteriorating internal security. to overcome these difficulties with the help of their neighbors, they must move away from further increasing tensions on the border by deploying military forces.
It is encouraging that the Central asian coun- tries, regardless of how the international situation develops, are involved with great respon- sibility and intensity in discussing and seeking solutions to key regional problems. this testifies to the strengthening of intra-regional integration and security. today, it is necessary to develop this co-operation at a new level and strengthen the practical components of our co-operation. all the countries of Central asia are firmly committed to promoting joint efforts to strengthen co-opera- tion and reach a common understanding to mini- mize the negative consequences of various global developments on the socio-political life of our region. since these countries are closely involved in modern global
developments, whose pace has accelerated sharply, this implies an awareness of the need to develop adequate paradigms for understanding and responding to global and regional developments, which should correspond to the interests and potential of our societies. in this aspect, these countries are also expanding organic interactions with other countries inter- ested in strengthening the stable development of our nations and ensuring their security.
Usmonzoda Kh is professor and corresponding member of the
National academy of sciences of Tajikistan (Nast), and director of the
Center for strategic research under the President of the
Republic of Tajikistan.
